Burn probability

n. The probability that a specific geographic location will experience a wildland fire during a specified time period.

 

  • Discussion

 

Unless otherwise stated, the time period for estimating burn probability is typically one year (annual burn probability). The Fire Spread Probability (FSPro) system estimates burn probability for a user-specified duration of days to weeks. Burn probability can be estimated examining fire records or by simulating fire growth. The FlamMap fire behavior mapping system nominally simulates burn probability. Those estimates are actually conditional burn probability--the probability of a pixel burning during a specified duration, given that a fire ignites in the analysis area--not annual burn probability. The FlamMap burn probability numbers are best viewed as a relative index of burn probability.

 

  • Units

     

    Burn probability is most commonly expressed as a decimal fraction. For example, an annual burn probability of 0.001 means that there is one chance in 1000 of observing a fire in a year.

     

  • See Also

  • Notes

    • Author 

      Joe Scott, Research Forester

      Systems for Environmental Management